Crown has announced that one of the world’s most influential political forecasters, also a renowned statistician, sabermetrician, psephologist, writer and semi-professional poker player, Nate Silver (pictured), will be arriving on Friday, January 25, as Crown’s special guest to attend the Aussie Millions Poker Championship.
The American genius predicted Obama had a 90.9% chance of winning a majority in the electoral votes and by crunching polling data he successfully predicted the correct result in 50 out of 50 states.
Silver has now confirmed he will attend the Aussie Millions. He will start by playing in the coveted Aussie Millions ‘Main Event’ (Sunday, January 27 at noon) that has an estimated first prize of AUD$2,000,000.
“Poker played a major role in helping my life to become what it is today, and is a great way to develop the critical thinking skills that allow us to make better decisions under conditions of uncertainty,” Silver said.
“No venue puts those skills to the test more than a tournament like Crown’s Aussie Millions Poker Championship with elite players from all around the world.”
Poker is something of a lodestone in Silver’s life. It taught him about chance and the role it plays in life. "And it gave me better training than anything else I can think of about how to weigh new information, what might be important information and what might be less so. Our basic instincts tend to be not very good. We tend to overweigh new information,” Silver said.
Before he came to politics, Nate established his credentials as an analyst of baseball statistics. He developed a widely acclaimed system called PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm), which predicts player performance, career development, and seasonal winners and losers.
He is the author of a series of books on baseball statistics, which include Mind Game, Baseball Between the Numbers, and It Ain’t Over ’til It’s Over. Nate has written for ESPN.com, Sports Illustrated, Slate, New York Sun and the New York Times. His work has been reported in such publications as Newsweek, Huffington Post, and Vanity Fair.
Silver’s new book, The Signal and The Noise: Why Most Predictions Fail – But Some Don’t, is a New York Times bestseller and was published in November 2012 by Penguin. Data-based predictions underpin a growing sector of critical fields, from political polling and hurricane watches to the stock market.
Nate takes readers on a tour of modern prediction science, uncovering a surprising connection among humility, uncertainty and good results. It’s an essential read for anyone interested in how data can be used to understand the future.
Nate Silver has been honoured by a series of accolades, from Time Magazine’s 100 Most Influential People of 2009 to Rolling Stone’s 100 Agents of Change. FiveThirtyEight.com won Best Political Coverage in the 2008 Weblog Awards.